Winter Weather Advisory AND a Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
On the same day (welcome to spring in Michigan).
As I type this, it’s down to 31° in Grand Rapids. I think that’s as low as it’s going to go and it may start up before sunrise. We do expect some rainshowers during the morning. It’s only 28° in Big Rapids as I type this. So…
We have a Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am for Newaygo, Mecosta and Isabella counties to the north for the possibility of a little freezing rain. Here you’ll have to watch for an icy spot during the morning.
The Winter Weather Advisory extends north to cover most all of northern Lower Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan. This is for around 1/10th inch of freezing rain and perhaps some mixed snow. The freezing rain threat should end as temperature rise above freezing in the midday/afternoon.
And the central and western U.P. have a Winter Storm Warning for freezing rain and some snow. There could be as much as 6” of snow up toward Copper Harbor. The purple-colored counties in Wisconsin are under an ice storm warning.
Then for later today… we have the threat of a severe thunderstorm. Warm air will surge north into West Michigan this mid-late afternoon. We’ll rise from the 30s early in the day to the 60s, but we may not see our high temperature for the day until late afternoon or evening. It’ll be breezy and on the chilly side this morning.
That’s a level 3 Enhanced Outlook in the orange color for E. Iowa, N Illinois and S. Wisconsin and a level 2 risk over much of S. Lower Michigan. SPC says: “Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan.”
The map above shows the risk of a tornado this PM. The highest risk is in the yellow area (10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point). The risk is lower, just a 2% chance in West Michigan.
This is the Severe Wind Outlook, with a 30% probability (of a severe wind report within 25 miles of a given point) in the red area and a 15% chance in the yellow area which includes southern and central Lower Michigan. SPC says: “the strength of the low-level wind field will support a continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the evening and overnight hours.”
Here’s the severe hail (1” in diameter or greater) outlook. The brown color over Lower Michigan is a 5% chance of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point.
As you can see, strong winds in storms this evening looks like the greatest threat we have in Lower Michigan.
This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from SPC for Friday/Friday night. The chance of severe weather shifts a little to the west, with an Enhanced Outlook for S. Iowa and N. Missouri and a level 2 Slight Risk from Central Iowa to N. Texas. The light green over Michigan is a risk of an isolated general (not severe) thunderstorm. I think most of Friday will be dry.
The Grand Rapids NWS adds this regarding the potential for a storm on Saturday: “Another round of storms Friday Night into Saturday…The Day 3 Outlook (Sat.) from SPC has us in General Thunder at this point…but we will be monitoring trends as the cold front is still in our (county warning) area in the early-to-mid afternoon. This is another dynamic system with strong wind fields in place…feel another wind threat is possible, especially for areas to the south and east of Grand Rapids in the afternoon.