Possible Severe Weather Next Tue. PM

Dry Weather Through Monday

This is the Total Rainfall Outlook for the next week (168 hours). Note the heavier rain from northeast Texas to New England. There may be a little residual La Nina going on here…with a tendency for systems to move through the Ohio Valley during the winter months. Lower Michigan is on the north end of this area of heavier rainfall.

First, the weather looks dry for the next 3 days (Sat. - Mon.). We’ll see a little sun this Sat. AM with clouds moving in for this afternoon. It’ll be another cool day today with PM temps. in the low 40s, then we warm well into the 50s Sunday PM and 60s on Monday.

We’re tracking the chance of a severe thunderstorm Tuesday PM/night. This is from the Saturday AM Grand Rapids Forecast Discussion: “SEVERAL MODELS (CSU, NSSL, AND NCARS AI- NWP FORECASTS) HIGHLIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY WILL IMPACT OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.”

And this from the Storm Prediction Center: “Lake Michigan vicinity - Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D4/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday…Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity.”

So…keep this in mind. Where will you be Tuesday PM? I’ll update this story later today (Sat.) (lightning pic. from John Sculley).