Isolated T-Storm Possible This PM

Most all of the day will be dry

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this (Tue.) afternoon/evening from the Storm Prediction Center. Southern Lower Michigan is in the light green General Thunderstorm Outlook.

They say: “A surface trough is forecast to develop from Lower MI into southern WI and northern IL by late afternoon. Models suggest at least isolated late day and evening thunderstorms will develop ahead of this trough, though instability levels are uncertain. Despite marginal dewpoints/moisture, the cool temperatures aloft may support a few cells capable of small hail from IL into IN by late afternoon. Wind gust potential is more uncertain and dependent on storm coverage/outflow production, with the dry boundary layer conditionally helping strong gust potential into the evening and perhaps overnight.”

Bottom line…I’ve got the chance of any one spot getting rain at 40%. While an isolated report of small hail and/or gusty winds is possible, the odds of any one spot seeing hail and strong wind is low. Any showers and storms would be along the trough, so if you do get a shower or storm, it won’t last very long. There’s also a little better chance of a shower or storm south of I-94 than there is up along US 10 (Ludington to Reed City to Bay City).

Here’s the 66-hour rainfall forecast. The light green color is for 1/10th of an inch of rain or less. I queried Grand Rapids and it gives us just 0.06” with a Low End of nothing. Rainfall may be a touch higher toward in the Indiana border in the evening and IL, IN and OH could see a shower develop Wed. PM.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Wednesday. Michigan is not in it…it should be a dry day statewide. The trough I mentioned earlier will sink south, giving a chance of an isolated shower or storm from central Illinois to northern Virginia.

There is a level 1 Marginal Outlook in the Plains from South Dakota to Texas. There could be isolated storms with hail and strong winds there. The High Plains had a very dry winter, so they could use any rain they get on Wednesday.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Thursday PM/night. Once again, it does not include Michigan. We should have another dry day here. Severe Weather is likely from Iowa to Oklahoma.

Here’s high temperatures for this Tuesday. It’ll be significantly warmer this afternoon than it was Sunday and Monday with highs inland in the mid-upper 60s to low 70s along and south of I-94. It will be cooler near Lake Michigan with a high in the upper 50s at South Haven. The wind has picked up and there are small craft advisories in effect for Lake Michigan.

Also: The Rapid River in the U.P. is certainly living up to its name. There is still snow in parts of Upper Michigan. Marquette still had 10” of snow on the ground at midnight. However, S. Ste. Marie melted their last inch of snow on Monday and they report just a trace of snow on the ground this morning. They had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for 144 days.