This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Wednesday (5/13). There is a level 2 Slight Risk of a severe storm from northern Utah north through eastern Idaho and western Wyoming, across Montana and up into Canada. The threat there is isolated wind damage. So Yogi Bear better make sure that picnic basket doesn’t blow away.

There are two other areas with a Marginal Risk (level 1) from south-central New York to western Virginia and in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Here in Michigan, we’ll probably be storm free until the weekend.

We had some showers and thunderstorms move through the area Tuesday evening. Here’s some peak wind gusts with the storms. There were several hail reports.

Nationally, there was virtually no severe weather on Tuesday. There were two marginal 1” diameter hail reports and one possible small tornado, all in central Florida.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday. No storms in Lower Michigan. There’s a Slight Risk (level 2) in Kansas and a Marginal Risk (level 1) from the Texas Panhandle to western Illinois.

This is 3-day total rainfall. Much of southern Lower Michigan will be dry. There could be a few scattered light showers in northern Lower and eastern Upper Michigan.

Here’s Forecast High Temperatures for today. Low to mid 50s inland and near 50 at Lake Michigan. With a brisk northwest wind at 15-25 mph, it’ll feel more like March than May. The average high temperature for today in Grand Rapids is 69.

We’ll be mostly sunny and warmer on Thursday. I can’t rule out a little frost in low spots that get cold on a clear night (Leota, Baldwin). After that, I think we’re done with frost/freeze forecasts and you’re free to plant the garden. Most of the weekend will be dry. There will be a small chance of a shower or t-storm on Saturday with a little better chance either Sunday or Monday.

Here’s a look at the Frost Advisory (medium blue counties) and the Freeze Warning (darker blue counties) that’s in effect this morning. With clouds coming in many areas won’t see frost, but scattered areas will (low spots with sandy soil are most susceptible). This should be the last morning with a general Frost Advisory that covers all of West Michigan. I can’t rule out a frosty morning in places like Baldwin, Leota, Gaylord and Grayling.

There is a Freeze Warning early this (Tue.) for most of Northern Lower Michigan. It’s a Frost Advisory for Manistee, Benzie and Leelanau Counties.

Here’s forecast low temperatures for this morning across northern Lower Michigan. Inland areas may rich the upper 20s, while lakeshore areas may stay a degree or two above freezing.

We should be a few degrees warmer today. High temperatures will generally be in the mid-upper 60s. It’ll be in the low-mid 70s at the Indiana border and near 60 along the lakeshore north of Muskegon. It’ll hit 80 out along the Mississippi River, but once again the cool air will move in and we’ll be stuck in the low-mid 50s on Wednesday.

Since April 29 (13 days), the temperature has been 6.7 degrees cooler than average and since April 30 (12 days), Grand Rapids has had just 0.03” of rain.

Here’s forecast 3-day rainfall totals. First, some welcome rain for Florida. They’ve been fighting wildfires. Fortunately, the biggest one in the Everglades is more than 50% contained.

Here’s rainfall (mainly today/this evening) for West Michigan. Everyone gets a little rain. I did a query on Ionia, where 0.05 is expected…though the high end is 0.4”, so generally less than 1/10th inch in the light green area, with isolated totals up to near half an inch. The darker green is 1/4 to 1/2”.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Tuesday. There’s a Marginal Risk (in dark green on the map above) for eastern Wisconsin, Lake Michigan and a small part of southwest Lower Michigan. That area extends southwest to southeast Kansas. There’s also a Marginal Risk Area in the Florida Peninsula.

There could be an isolated strong wind gust with any storms the develop. Yesterday (Mon.), there were only 8 severe weather reports, mainly isolated trees and wires down in the eastern Carolina. One semi was blown over at Forestbrook, South Carolina.

Here’s a 5-day forecast. A touch warmer today with a 70% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. It’ll become breezy with a south wind at 15-20 mph. The coolest place will be from Muskegon north along the lake, where the south wind comes off the water. The water temperatures at Holland St. Park is 52 and it’s 58 at Reeds Lake (inland).

Wednesday will feel more like early April than mid-May with a brisk northwest wind. Any leftover showers will clear out early. Thursday looks nice, lots of sunshine…mid 60s…a touch cooler near the lake. Thursday should be an OK day. We’ll head up into the 70s (inland) over the weekend with just a small chance of a shower or storm on Saturday.

Have a great day!

Yesterday (May 11 - Monday) in Utqiagvik, Alaska (the northernmost city in the United States), the sun rose above the horizon at 2:57 AM and won’t set again for 84 straight days or until August 2nd! Here’s a look at a picture showing the sun as low as it got Monday morning. Here’s a link to a very cool timelapse of the sun today:

The HIGH temperature at Utqiagvik (formerly called Barrow) Sunday was 15°F and the low temperature was 6°F. They have not been up to 32° (the freezing point) since Oct. 13. They officially gained 1 hour and 10 minutes of daylight Monday vs. Sunday.

I wonder what the record is for most Frost Advisories/Freeze Warnings in the spring. We’ve got more cold weather Advisories and Warnings in Michigan for tonight (early Monday morning) and likely again tomorrow night (early Tuesday morning).

Tonight we have a Freeze Warning for Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta and Isabella Counties to the north. It’s a Frost Advisory for Muskegon, Kent and Montcalm Counties to the south.

The Freeze Warning extends north to the Mackinac Bridge. It will likely get below freezing in parts of Upper Michigan, but vegetation isn’t far enough along to warrant Freeze Warnings for the U.P.

Here’s some forecast low temperatures for tonight (Sun. night). These temperatures are at eye-level, or around 5 feet off the ground. It can be as much as 5 degrees colder than that on a calm, clear night. The warmer temperatures at the lake are weather stations that are at the shore and the cooler readings are farther away from the lake. That’s why there is a difference between Holland (37) and South Haven (43).

Bottom line, if you can hold off planting anything frost sensitive until Wednesday, I think there’s a good chance that most all of us will be done from the Frost Advisories.

Also: Check this out…a winter panorama view of Main St. on Mackinac Island.

We have another Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning for areas north of Kent County overnight. The Sunday morning Frost Advisory is for Mason, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta and Isabella Counties. The Freeze Warning covers Lake, Osceola and Clare counties to the north. On the maps above and below, the Frost Advisory is in light blue and the Freeze Warning in dark blue.

Most of northern Lower Michigan has a Freeze Warning. It’s a Frost Advisory for the counties that border Lake Huron plus Leelanau County.

It’s likely that parts of Michigan will again see at least Frost Advisories for Sunday night/Monday morning and for Monday night/Tuesday morning.

A warmer pattern is on the way. While it starts cooler than average this week, warmer weather with highs in the 70s (and a day or two in the 80s) is coming for later next week. This is the 8-14 day forecast and most all of the country, including the Great Lakes, is expected to be warmer than average.

Rainfall should be near to above average in Lower Michigan. I’m not seeing any significant, area-wide flood threat as of yet.

The map above is the 3-4 week temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. This is for end of May and the first week of June. We have an equal chance of above or below average temperatures in the Great Lakes.

The rainfall forecast also has an equal chance of above or below average totals in the western Great Lakes.

Today (Sun.) should be a significant severe weather day, focused on the Dallas/Fort Worth area and north central Texas. SPC says: “Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible.”

Here’s 3-day total rainfall for Sunday - Tuesday. Lots of showers and storms through much of the South. They need the rain. The West is dry.

Here’s 3-Day Rainfall over the Great Lakes. The Gulf moisture is mostly cut off, so systems passing by in our west-northwest flow will give relatively light amounts of rainfall.

There should be a touch more rain north than south. A query for Grand Rapids rainfall is expected to be 0.1 to 0.2” of rain. Since we’ll be dry today and Monday, this rain will fall on Tuesday.

This is the Mount Ripley Ski Area Saturday (5/9) (courtesy of Michigan Tech). There are still some patches of snow.

Here’s a map showing where snow is still on ground. There’s still a patch of snow in the Keweenaw Peninsula, especially on the north-facing slopes in the forests. There’s also still a pretty good amount of snow north of Sault Ste. Marie in Canada.

Herman is a small town west of Marquette. It was largely a Finnish settlement and quite a few residents worked in the mines. The population peaked around 1920, when Herman had over 7,200 residents. There is no official population count today, but it’s estimated to be between 105 and 250. It has a fairly continuous snowfall record.

This past winter, the season snowfall total reached 366”. The average season snowfall for Herman is 206.8”, so that was 159.2” above average. This past March, they set a 24-hour snowfall record with 34” of snow, which boosted their snow cover to a record 68”. They had a trace of snow (flurries) on five of the first 8 days of May. They also had a continuous snow cover of 5 months and one day this past winter.

Here’s a webcam grab from the FAA camera at Point Lay, Alaska. Earlier today they were reporting at temperature of 9° with a wind chill of -10°.

Finally, here’s a look at the current weather at the South Pole, where it’s autumn. Pretty chilly - and dark - they get no sunshine and even no twilight in May, June and July.

Daughter #2 and I share the same birthday, May 9. She was born exactly 30 years to the hour after I was born. We often like to share a special time together and this year, Marie suggested we visit the zoo in Fort Wayne, Indiana. We had a nice trip down here, stopped in the afternoon to visit a friend who lives here. We then went to play miniature golf (Marie won) and then had dinner at the nearby Olive Garden. We’ll head to the zoo tomorrow (Friday) morning.

We thought about seeing a Tin Caps baseball game, but this evening it’s sprinkling, breezy and chilly. Tomorrow evening is Pro Wrestling Night.

Here’s the latest 8-14 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. This is for May 15-21. They forecast a heat bubble of sorts over the central U.S. with above average temperatures. This would mean high temperatures in the 70s and 80s….However:

This is from the GFS model forecast for Saturday, May 23rd. There’s high pressure north of North Dakota and a cool flow of air from the Hudson Bay area (where there is still snow on the ground) to Michigan. It’s way too early to pin down anything this far out, but while the warmer air will get a bit stronger as we move into mid May, there is still the potential for a relatively cool period as long as all that snow, ice and cold water extends from Lake Superior to the Hudson Bay area.

Here’s high temperatures for this Friday. We’ll see readings in the low-mid 60s in inland areas and mid-upper 50s near Lake Michigan. Readings should reach the mid 50s in the U.P. and approach 70 by the Mississippi River.

Here’s high temperatures from Thursday. Another cool day. The average high temperature for Grand Rapids is now 67, so the 55 reading was 12 cooler than average.

Here’s 3-day total rainfall. Again, lots of rain in the South and very little in Michigan. The main front across the South is the focus for the significant thunderstorms, while relatively dry air implies rainfall amounts will continue to be spotty and light in the Great Lakes.

The NWS has confirmed two strong EF3 tornadoes Wednesday in Mississippi. One tornado was nearly a mile wide and the other over a mile wide. There were 13 injuries from these twisters and both were on the ground continuously for over 30 miles.

There will likely be more tornadoes confirmed from this event. Looks like over 400 homes were severely damaged or destroyed. Drone video of the damage.

This PM, there is a level 1 or Marginal Risk of a severe storm from Missouri down to Texas, then east to Florida. They need the rain…hopefully, they won’t get much severe weather.

On Saturday, there is a chance of a non-severe thundershower in most of Lower Michigan. There’s a level 1 Marginal Risk over much of Oklahoma and from east Texas east to Jacksonville FL and Savannah GA.

Here’s a look at high temperatures Wednesday. The 55 in Grand Rapids was 11 cooler than average. It was cooler near the lake, a chilly 47 at the Muskegon Beach. Mackinac Island had a high of 43 and S. Ste. Marie struggled to 41.

This map shows snow cover Wednesday morning. There’s still a little snow in the higher elevations of the Keweenaw Peninsula and just west of Marquette. There’s still a lot of snow on the ground in Canada as you go north of S. Ste. Marie.

Wow! Check out the snow they had in Colorado…and it wasn’t just in the mountains. The Denver Airport had nearly 5” of snow. Over 2 1/2 feet of snow fell in parts of Rocky Mt. National Park.

Here’s expected high temperatures in the U.S. today. We’ll reach only the low-mid 50s and just the 40s up near Lake Superior. It’ll stay hot in Florida and the desert Southwest. Denver soars back into the 60s.

Here’s the 3-day total rainfall forecast. Heavy rain is expected from southeast Texas to the Carolinas. Probably no rain or just a few sprinkles for much of Grand Rapids, with a chance of a shower or t-shower basically limited to areas along and south of I-04.

There’s a Marginal (level 1) risk of a severe thunderstorm in southwest Texas and from the Florida Panhandle to the Coastal Carolinas.

For the first time in what seems a couple weeks, the 8-14 day temperature outlook as West Michigan a touch warmer than average. As I’ve been mentioning…overall the first two weeks of May would likely be cooler than average and the last two weeks may turn out a touch warmer than average with the threat of frost diminishing after the middle of the month.

Check my blog tomorrow…I’m planning a 2-day trip with daughter #2. See where we land. Have a great day!

Here’s Tuesday afternoon high temperatures. Big Rapids topped the list. They got the most sunshine. Grand Rapids midnight-to-midnight high temperature was 60 at 12:01 am…the afternoon high temperature was just 54. The average daily high temperature for Grand Rapids is now 66.

It was cooler near Lake Michigan. The afternoon high temperature was just 47 at Muskegon. It was cold in the U.P. Several places had a little light snow, including Ironwood and Marquette.

We start this Wednesday with a Freeze Warning along US 10 away from the lake and a Frost Advisory for the counties above in the lighter blue - including Oceana, Newaygo and Montcalm Counties.

This map from the G.R. National Weather Service shows where a freeze and frost is possible early this Wednesday morning.

And here’s a map showing low temperatures and frost/freeze areas early Thursday morning. This is cool, but not nearly as cold as the 26-degree reading we had in Grand Rapids on 4/20.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for this Wednesday…mid 50s inland and near 50 at Lake Michigan. Most of these temperatures are about 10 degrees cooler than average.

The 8-14 day outlook finally has west Michigan back to average. Keep in mind this is the average over 7 days…so the first 3 or 4 days may be cooler than average and the last 3 or 4 days may be a little warmer than average…balancing out to average. I’ve said before I expect a little warmer pattern after mid-May (15th) and maybe then I can give the go ahead to plant frost sensitive plants and vegetables.

Here’s 3-day total precipitation. That’s a lot of rain (thunderstorms) falling across much of the South. They need the rain and they’re going to get it.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Wednesday. That’s a level 3 Enhanced Risk from northeast Louisiana across Mississippi into Alabama. Birmingham is the first city listed in the Enhanced Area (stay safe daughter #3). The Storm Prediction Center says: “Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.”

There were only 5 reports of severe weather on Tuesday…a very “quiet” day.

The precipitation out west is falling mainly as snow. This area had well below average snowfall this past winter and they need the moisture.

This is the snowfall in Rocky Mt. National Park, where an isolated 30” total is possible. I noted that today’s bird watcher’s walk has been postponed.

Here’s the snowfall forecast in Colorado. Note the highest snow totals could be mover 2 feet. It’s a snowstorm for the city of Denver where 4-9” is likely. Snow falls, albeit lighter out in the plains of far west Kansas.

The sun was shining Tuesday up on Mackinac Island. The snow piles have melted and the island is coming alive. Note the horses and bicycles.

Also: The Florida Peninsula is hot - highs in the low-mid 90s. Spectacular eruption of Kilauea on the big island of Hawaii.

Here’s forecast afternoon temperatures for today (May 5). We’ll be in the mid 50s this afternoon - jacket weather. While it’s not impossible that a light shower or sprinkle will occur, most all of the day will be dry. A west wind will keep temperatures cooler near Lake Michigan. The weather should be good for the Tulip Festival much of the rest of this week.

Here’s high temperatures from Monday. It was the warmest day of the week with inland areas in the 70s. Note the 17-degree difference between the Muskegon Airport and the Muskegon Beach. At the South Haven Beach, the temperature climbed to 70, then the wind shifted off the cold water and the temperature quickly fell into the upper 50s.

Here’s precipitation over the next 3 days combined. That’s a big area to see 1.5 - 2.5” rains. New England gets some significant rain. The precipitation in Colorado will be mostly snow. There could be 3-6” in Denver with 1-3 feet of snow in the high mountains.

An isolated light shower or sprinkle isn’t impossible, but if that were to occur it would be brief and light. A query on Grand Rapids yields only 0.01” of rain - save for Kalamazoo.

All the green dots are places that reported hail with the thunderstorms Monday PM. It was generally under an inch in diameter. Three locations in Berrien Co. had 1” diameter hail. Three locations in Indiana had severe criteria winds.

This pic. was taken at the lighthouse at Michigan City IN. The sun had just set. A gust to 58 mph was recorded at the lighthouse. You can see the streaks of rain in the distance.

Also: Four of the five Great Lakes are total ice free. Lake Superior has 0.9% ice cover, just a small amount of ice left in the bays on the northwest side of the lake.

The heat is on for central Florida, where temperatures could reach the mid 90s. The Arizona desert will see temperatures soar to 100 degrees and it’ll be warm in the Pacific Northwest.

Areas along and south of I-96 (generally south of a line from Montague to Detroit) will have a Marginal Risk (level 1) of a severe thunderstorm this evening. The Storm Prediction Center says: “Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat. However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.”

This looks like the only chance we’ll have for severe weather this week.

Here’s forecast rainfall over the next 3 days combined. Lots of rain down in Indiana…more rain for parts of the Southwest.

Here’s a closer view. Our rain will come this evening/tonight. We expect a touch under a quarter inch north of Grand Rapids and about half an inch south of I-94.

Today will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures inland reaching the mid 70s. It’ll be 10 degrees cooler near Lake Michigan (South Haven gets a high of 62. It’ll be another breezy day. Peak winds Sunday included 50 mph at the Ford Airport in Grand Rapids, 45 mph in Holland, 42 mph in East Gr. Rapids and 41 mph at Pentwater and Ionia.

The latest 8-14 Day Outlook calls for a continuation of our cool weather pattern into the middle of the month. I don’t see a general frost/freeze at this point, but with a cool trough hanging around the Great Lakes, we can expect some cool nights if and when we clear out at night.

This was Mackinac Island at midday Sunday. The island is getting ready for the tourists. Note the horses. They had a light shower, which dampened Lake Shore Drive. The temperature was a cool 39°. The warmest temperature so far this year on the island has been 61°. They have had only 10 days since Nov. 4 when the temperature has climbed above 50°. (pic. from Horn’s Bar webcam).

Today is the one warm day. We’re back in the 50s tomorrow. We’ll continue Small Craft Advisories for Lake Michigan today. Winds will be southwest at 15-25 mph with gust in the 30-35 range.

Sunday morning update: Let’s start by going through the forecast. Inland, today will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. However, it’ll be on the windy side - southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to around 30-35 mph. It’ll also be about 10 degrees cooler at Lake Michigan. The chance of a light shower/sprinkle is not 0%, but most areas will stay dry.

Monday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs inland in the low 70s. Once again it will be on the windy side (winds stay southwest). It’ll be a good 10 degrees cooler at Lake Michigan. A shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible Monday night.

Tuesday will be cooler with a chance of a shower (mainly early). Look for highs in the mid-upper 50s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Average high temperatures are now in the mid 60s. There will be a small chance of a light shower Wednesday and Thursday.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for this Sunday PM…low 60s inland and low-mid 50s at Lake Michigan. It’ll be in 50s in northern Lower Michigan and most of Upper Michigan. You can see the warmer air (highs near 70 this PM) out along the Mississippi River.

Did you know that you can go snow skiing in Michigan today - Sunday, May 3rd? This pic. is from the Boyne Mt. facebook page and they write:

Helloooooo Boyne Mountain! It's Kyler, with your snow report.

”We are open for weekend skiing Sunday from 9am-1pm with Victor Glacier.

The park crew is working to have a setup with some features at the bottom of the glacier for as long as we can. They're putting in work to keep the fun going.

Victor Glacier is about 10 feet deep, and still going strong. Weekend riding in May is looking good.

Victor Glacier: Michigan's Longest Season

Mount Bohemia is officially closed for the season, which means Victor remains the winner as the longest season in Michigan. We're not stopping until Mother Nature makes us.

And don't forget about the Boho Bash on Saturday, May 16, our late-season celebration to close out the winter in style.

This Week's Weather

The weather is looking more like normal spring this week, so temps are looking good at preserving more snow for riding this weekend.”

The U.P. and northern Lower Michigan did see a few flurries as the colder air came in. Herman is up to 366” of snow for the winter, with Mt. Bohemia right behind at 360”.

Here’s 3-day rainfall for the contiguous U.S. The best bet for showers in southern Lower Michigan will be Monday night into Tuesday AM.

There may be a little more rain south and less rain to the north. The Query for Grand Rapids is less than 1/4” with a low end of just 0.03”. Around 1/2” is possible along and south of i-94. River levels will continue to fall in most areas.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook for this Sunday. There’s only one Marginal Risk area from Missouri into Illinois, mainly for very isolated strong wind and hail. Tornadoes are unlikely. A non-severe thundershower is possible in eastern Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook for Monday/Monday night. There is a level 1 Marginal Risk from eastern Kansas to southern Lower Michigan. SPC says: “…strong storms are possible during the afternoon…near the surface front from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer could support strong wind gusts.” So, to answer the question, will I see a severe storm at my residence Monday evening…probably no.

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook has above average temperatures west of the Mississippi River with cooler than average over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is for May 10-16. I think the overall cooler than average pattern that we are in now will end around the middle of the month and we’ll flip to warm, with lots of days in the 70s in the 2nd half of May (and maybe a few in the 80s).

This is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 9-15. This forecast comes out once a day in the mid-late afternoon.

The forecast has been consistently cool for the first two weeks of May, recognizing the pattern chance with the upper level trough that has formed over the Great Lakes and Northeast and the upper level ridge in the West (Rockies).

Here’s a map of the upper level wind flow. Our air at this level (500mb pressure surface) is coming south from Hudson Bay.

This map shows snow (in white) and ice (in yellow) cover as of Friday May 1. You can see the solid ice cover on Hudson Bay and there is still snow on he ground north of Minnesota and Lake Superior. When we get a north or northwest flow, cold air that has been sitting over that snow is going to move in. Plus, when it’s cloudy and the air passes over the cold water of the Great Lakes, it just doesn’t have a lot of time to warm up.

Friday’s high temperature in Grand Rapids was 46 and that was 18 degrees colder than the average high for the day which is 64. It was the coldest day since April 7.

April was 4.1 degrees warmer than average. We had 20 days that were warmer than average and just 9 days that were colder than average. Two days were exactly average. The warmest temperature was 80 on the 23rd and the coolest was 20 on the 7th.

Rainfall totaled 7.85” and that was 3.86” above average. We had two days when we set daily rainfall records: 1.53” on the 4th and 1.92” on the 14th. We had 15 days with measurable rain and another 4 days with a trace of rain.

It was a windy month with an average wind speed of 11.4 mph. On the 14th, Grand Rapids (Ford Airport) set an all-time record peak gust of 81 mph.

We had 9 days with thunderstorms and only a trace of snowfall.

Now, the first two weeks of May will overall be cool. Some of you may want to consider delaying the planting of any frost sensitive flowers and vegetables. That’s especially true if you live in a place that is prone to a late frost. A late frost is more common in rural valleys with sandy soil.

Here’s the 3 to 4 week temperature forecast. The Climate Prediction Center expects a pattern shift around the 15th that will bring back a warmer pattern and with it more thunderstorms.

Here’s total rainfall over the next 3 days. Much-needed rain will fall in the Southeast with only a few scattered light showers and sprinkles in West Michigan on Sunday.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Saturday. There is a Slight Risk (level 2) across much of northern Florida and extreme southern Georgia.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook map for Sunday. There’s a Marginal Risk (level 1) for large sections of Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms are not expected in Michigan on Sunday, though a storm is possible on Monday.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for today (Sat.). We’ll be a touch warmer than yesterday, but still well below average. Look for highs in the low 50s in inland areas and mid-upper 40s at Lake Michigan.

Also: Half dollar-sized hail in Houston. Gaining daylight in the month of May. Fresh snow on the mountaintops on Colorado. Significant flooding in San Antonio. Significant flooding in Brazil. Cool iridescent cloud in India. Side note…my uncle spent two years in India. He was in the Army and they needed someone who could fix motorcycles in India and Uncle Felix was the best motorcycle mechanic in Chicago.

We’ll be under a Freeze Warning late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A good portion of West Michigan will dip below the freezing mark.

All counties in West Michigan are under the Freeze Warning.

All of northern Lower Michigan is under a Freeze Warning Friday night/early Sasturday. The U.P. will also see freezing temperatures. Their vegetation isn’t far enough along to warrant a Freeze Warning.

The Freeze Warning extends down into northern Indiana. Much of the rest of Indiana has a Frost Advisory.

Here’s forecast low temperatures for early Saturday morning. Most of West Michigan will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s. The coldest spots (mainly north of Grand Rapids will reach the mid 20s.

The latest 8-14 day temperature forecast for May 8-14 keeps the Great Lakes in the below average category. By the end of this period, warmer air is moving east into the Plains states. So my educated guess is that we will be able to plant more frost sensitive flowers and vegetables during the middle of the month.

Rainfall is expected to be a touch below average in West Michigan. Above average rainfall is forecast across the Southern U.S., where we have had drought conditions.

Here’s combined rainfall over the next 3 days. A significant band of heavy rainfall is likely from New Mexico east to the Carolinas.

You can still find “winter” in parts of Alaska. This pic. is from the FAA camera at Point Lay on the northwest coast of our 49th State. I wonder if that pile on the right side of the pic. is all snow, or just a snow covered mound of something else.. This was taken at 8:39 pm. Daylight is quite long in May in Alaska.

Today we have a full moon. There are 2 full moons this month. Today we have the “Flower Moon”. The second full moon in a calendar month is called a “Blue Moon” though it’s not any bluer than any other full moon.

Also: Large hail falling in a swimming pool. Baseball-sized hail. For the first time since records of this began, there were no tornado warnings in Alabama in April. Volcano in Mexico.

A Freeze Warning (in dark blue on the map above) and a Frost Advisory (in lighter blue on the map above) will be in effect from 2 am until 9 am Thursday morning (4/30). This does include Grand Rapids, but does not include the lakeshore counties or the I-94 counties.

Measures should be taken to protect any frost sensitive plants. Many trees are in blossom, including fruit trees. Don’t worry about bulb flowers like tulips. They will wilt when it gets below freezing, but then they’ll pop back up when it warms back up above freezing.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories will most likely be in effect for Thursday night/Friday morning as well.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for much of Northern Lower Michigan. The only reason they are not in effect for Upper Michigan is that vegetation has not progresses enough for frost to cause damage. However, it will be just as cold tonight in the U.P.

The green on the map is a Flood Advisory for Emmet and Cheboygan Counties for another week (until May 7). There is a Flood Advisory in effect for the Tahquamenon River, which is a few inches above flood stage. There is a Flood Warning for the Michigamme River in the U.P.

Here’s a look at some forecast low temperatures for this Thursday night. Inland areas could drop to the upper 20s, while readings at the Lake Michigan shore should hold in the mid 30s (above freezing.

This graphic is from the National Weather Service in northern Indiana. This includes the Michigan counties that border Indiana. This area should not see frost tonight, but there will be a chance of frost/freeze tomorrow night (early Friday). In fact, we may have a little better chance of frost Friday AM.

The overall cool pattern should continue through much of the first half of May. There will be an upper level ridge over the Western U.S. and a trough over the Great Lakes. While this can be a cool and occasionally showery pattern, it should reduce the threat of severe weather in the Great Lakes for the first half of May.

Here’s the 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Lower Michigan may be slightly above average, but without a lot of Gulf moisture, we shouldn’t see the rainfall amounts that we’ve had in April.

This pattern should give some much needed rain to the southern and southeastern U.S.

We’ve had a lot of severe weather in the U.S. during March and April. We should see less severe weather over the next week. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1) over portions of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin.

The Severe Weather Outlook Area for Friday/Friday night shows two Marginal Risk areas from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Again, hopefully we’ll get some much needed rain in these areas and little severe weather. Again, no storms in the Great Lakes.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for Thursday…low-mid 50s inland, upper 40s near Lake Michigan and in northern Lower Michigan. Much of Upper Michigan will see high temperatures in the low 40s with Copper Harbor expected to see a high of just 38.

Here’s rainfall over the next 3 days. Lots of thunderstorms are expected from New Mexico to Georgia. There will be some significant rain in the state of Maine.

Over the next 3 days, much of West Michigan will see light amounts of rain with Grand Rapids expecting less than a tenth of an inch.

The (weak) La Nina pattern we’ve had for much of the last couple years is forecast to flip to an El Nino Pattern this late spring and summer.

The map above shows current global sea-surface temperature anomalies, which is the difference in sea surface temperature from average.

Look along the Equator west of South America. Here we find water temperatures are a little bit warmer than average. You can also see a deep red blog of quite warm water around 90W longitude.

The Climate Prediction Center says: “ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored to continue through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation.

So, what does that mean for our weather. First, this is just one piece of the long-range forecast (jigsaw) puzzle. It’s not the only piece. Head to this link and this link to see a record of El Ninos and La Ninas.

When we have a very strong El Nino (1982-83 for instance), we are likely to have a warm winter with less snow. On Christmas Day in 1982, Grand Rapids had a high temperature of 65° and we had only 36” of snow that winter.

However, we’ve had some really cold and snowy winters with a weak El Nino. Look at the winters of 1976-77 (tied for coldest of the century in West Michigan) and 1977-78 (anyone remember the blizzard of Jan. 26, 1978?).

The winter of 1951-52 was a moderate El Nino and that was the snowiest winter Grand Rapids has ever had with 132.2” at the airport and 144” downtown. We had 6 consecutive days in November 1951 with record low temperatures, including lows of 6° above on Nov. 5th and 9° on Nov. 6th.

The position of the warmest water along the Equator makes a difference. Is it near the South American Coast? or out toward the middle of the Pacific?

Here’s a map showing the general pattern in a year with a fairly strong El Nino. It’s generally wetter than average across the Southern U.S., even though the number of hurricanes in the western Atlantic is usually a bit below average.

There is generally dry weather across the Ohio Valley (the opposite of a strong La Nina). It’s warmer than average from eastern Alaska down to the northern Rockies, across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The warm air means less (sometimes much less) lake-effect snow. So the difference in snowfall between the Lake Michigan shore and inland areas would be less.

April is ending around 5° warmer than average and wet. May will start out cooler and a big drier than average. We’ve had 75.4” of snow in Grand Rapids this past winter. Muskegon has had 108.5”. If I were a betting man (and I’m not), I’d bet those totals will be lower next winter…but keep in mind that the average high/low temperature in Grand Rapids is 31°/19°. If we’re 5° warmer than that, then it’s 36°/24°. It’s still winter and with an average low of 24°, ski resorts will still be able to make snow at night at least some nights.

I’ll continue to track the developing El Nino. Remember, if it’s a strong El Nino - good chance of a relatively warm winter with less snow…weak El Nino and it could go either way.

Here’s the 3-4 week forecast for May 9-22 from the Climate Prediction Center. Below average temperatures are likely over the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. It’s likely temperatures will be a touch cooler than average over the next 10 days and maybe beyond that. So far, this month of April is running 5.1 degrees warmer than average. We’ve had 7.6” of rain this month, but only a trace of snow.

Rainfall is expected to be a touch above average over much of the country, including Michigan.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for today (Tue.). We’ll reach the upper 50s to near 60 inland, and low-mid 50s at the Lake Michigan shore. It’ll be a touch warmer - upper 60s - over in Detroit.

It got pretty windy for a while Monday PM. Here are some peak wind gusts. Approximately 60,000 customers lost power. There were many trees, wire and limbs downed by the wind and a couple of semi-trucks tipped over.

April has been warm and wet. We’re currently 5.1 degrees warmer than average and we’ve had 7.60” of rain in Grand Rapids this month. Blossoms are 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. Toward the end of this week, we may see a bit of frost in a few spots. We can get a frost all the way into mid-May.

The map above shows snow cover as of the morning of Monday, April 27. Two Michigan ski areas are expecting to be open this weekend. Last check of Michigan ski conditions at www.onthesnow.com showed Boyne Mt. open daily. They have 2 lifts operating with a 20” base. Mt. Bohemia in the U.P. will be open this weekend. They also have 2 lifts operating.

Herman, Michigan, west of Marquette is finally down to just a trace of snow on the ground. They had a continuous snow cover of 3” or more for 151 days, from Nov. 26 through April 25. They had 365” of snow this past winter. The maximum snow depth was 68 inches on March 16.

Here’s snow cover as of Monday 4/27 for the contiguous U.S. and southern Canada. A total of 9.2% of the contiguous U.S. has a snow cover. That’s almost all in the higher elevations of the western U.S. Snowfall this winter was below average over much of the West, especially in Colorado. Winter Park has had 197” of snow this winter, compared to an average of 345”, so that’s just 57% of of average. Breckenridge Ski Area had 155” of snow this winter, compared to an average of 355”. That was just 43% of average.

Other season snowfalls at western ski resorts this winter: Mammoth Mt. California 292”, Alta, Utah 319”, Kirkwood, California 324”, Alyeska, Alaska 412”, Mt. Baker, Washington 472”.

This is a webcam grab of Centennial Park in Holland around 2:30 am this Saturday. LOTS of tulips in bloom now, literally over a million blooming in Holland right now. The blossoms are out on the ornamental pear trees downtown and we’re counting down the days until Tulip Time. There are two big parades now at Tulip Time…the Children’s Parade on Thursday and the Music Parade on Saturday (2 pm).

So far, April is averaging 5.2 degrees warmer than average. We’ve had 16 days that have been warmer than average, 7 days that have been cooler than average and one day that was exactly average.

Here’s a cool pic. The sun is setting at Michigan City, Indiana. You can see the skyline of the city of Chicago to the left of the sun. Those skyscrapers are 40 miles away.

The record high temperature today is 86 and that occurred back in 1915. The record low temperature was 22 in 1967 (the year we had the big blizzard on Jan. 26. Sunrise today is at 6:43 am and sunset at 8:37 pm. We’re approaching 14 hours of daylight. The average high temperature for Grand Rapids is up to 62 and the average low is 41.

This should be a nice weekend. We’ll become partly to mostly sunny today and stay mostly sunny on Sunday. Here’s a map showing forecast high temperatures today with mid 60s inland and mid 50s along the lakeshore where the north wind will be coming over the cool water of Lake Michigan. So, the shore at S. Haven and Benton Harbor will be about 10 degrees cooler than inland areas like Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.

Temperatures should be similar on Sunday. The weather should be very good for the Kalamazoo Marathon…dry with temperatures in the mid 40s at sunrise, mid 50s when most of the runners are finishing.

I have never run a marathon. I did some 5Ks and one 10K (when I finished next to last). My daughter #1 has run a few marathons. I believe she was there for the infamous Chicago Marathon of Oct. 7, 2007. There were record high temperatures in the upper 80s that day and the race had to be cancelled when too many participants experienced dehydration. A total of 315 runners were treated at hospitals and medical tents that day.

Here’s 3-day rainfall (Sat. - Mon.). Some significant rain in the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Mid-Atlantic. A period of rain is possible in San Diego and across Nevada, which is the driest state in the U.S.

This is a 3-day total rainfall graphic. So, today it’s Saturday - Monday. We know Saturday and Sunday will be dry. Most all of Monday will be dry, but probably after sunset a band of showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west. This graphic counts the start of that rain and gives Grand Rapids 0.03”. Now the European model gives Grand Rapids 1/3rd inch of rain from sunset Monday into early Tuesday. That’s not enough to have much affect on area rivers. So far this month, Grand Rapids has had 7.19” of rain and that’s 4.15” above average.

Rainfall was meager on Friday, with 0.12” of rain officially in Grand Rapids. Just a trace of rain fell in Muskegon, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. Jackson had 0.30” of rain and they had a 52 mph wind gust.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today (Saturday). There is a level 4 (moderate risk, red color on the map) for SE Oklahoma. No thunderstorms in Michigan this week.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Monday. It looks like another big day of severe weather, with a large level 3 Enhance Risk area centered on Illinois. Again, tornadoes are possible, scattered wind damage is likely. Storms should be weakening as they cross Lake Michigan well after sunset.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading my blog.

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook continues to forecast cooler than average temperatures over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Keep in mind that this is a 7-day average…it may be cooler than average at the beginning of the period, but starting to trend to warm toward the end of the 7 days. Nevertheless, I’d continue to hold off planting anything frost sensitive.

Here’s high temperatures from Thursday. Look at the top temperature and the bottom temperature. Traverse City reached a warm 81, while not all that far away, Mackinac Island had a high temperature of just 45. Traverse City had a warm, south wind off the land, while Mackinac Island had a damp, brisk east wind off Lake Huron.

It was the first 80 degree temperature of the year for Grand Rapids, and probably the warmest day we’ll see for maybe a couple of weeks. Nice pic. here courtesy of the city of Holland. Overall, the weather should be cool and pleasant for Tulip Time.

Here’s high temperatures for this PM. We’ll be a few degrees cooler than yesterday because of more clouds and a chance of a shower or t-shower. Winds will shift from the south early to the west off Lake Michigan, so temps. may drop a few degrees when that happens. South Haven gets a high of 62...and just 47 in the U.P. at Manistique where the south wind will be coming off Lake Michigan. That’s an interesting place. Sometimes a cold front will come thru Manistique and the temperature will go up a few degrees as the wind shifts from the south off Lake Michigan to the west off the land.

Speaking of the U.P. Marquette was down to 1” of snow on the ground at midnight. That inch will melt today, leaving just the remains of the snow piles near the airport. They’ve had snow on the ground every day since Nov. 25th. The town of Herman still had 11” on the ground Friday AM, but I bet much of that melted with temps. yesterday in the 60s.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for this Friday. SPC has added a Marginal Risk Area for southern Lower Michigan away from Lake Michigan and for much of Indiana and western Ohio.

SPC says: “ a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.

The weekend will be dry and storm-free in Michigan, but we’ll have to keep an eye out for next Monday PM/night. This is the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Monday PM/night. The 15% (level 2 risk) comes up to Berrien Co. The rest of our area could be in a level 1 risk.