Here’s forecast afternoon temperatures for today (May 5). We’ll be in the mid 50s this afternoon - jacket weather. While it’s not impossible that a light shower or sprinkle will occur, most all of the day will be dry. A west wind will keep temperatures cooler near Lake Michigan. The weather should be good for the Tulip Festival much of the rest of this week.

Here’s high temperatures from Monday. It was the warmest day of the week with inland areas in the 70s. Note the 17-degree difference between the Muskegon Airport and the Muskegon Beach. At the South Haven Beach, the temperature climbed to 70, then the wind shifted off the cold water and the temperature quickly fell into the upper 50s.

Here’s precipitation over the next 3 days combined. That’s a big area to see 1.5 - 2.5” rains. New England gets some significant rain. The precipitation in Colorado will be mostly snow. There could be 3-6” in Denver with 1-3 feet of snow in the high mountains.

An isolated light shower or sprinkle isn’t impossible, but if that were to occur it would be brief and light. A query on Grand Rapids yields only 0.01” of rain - save for Kalamazoo.

All the green dots are places that reported hail with the thunderstorms Monday PM. It was generally under an inch in diameter. Three locations in Berrien Co. had 1” diameter hail. Three locations in Indiana had severe criteria winds.

This pic. was taken at the lighthouse at Michigan City IN. The sun had just set. A gust to 58 mph was recorded at the lighthouse. You can see the streaks of rain in the distance.

Also: Four of the five Great Lakes are total ice free. Lake Superior has 0.9% ice cover, just a small amount of ice left in the bays on the northwest side of the lake.

The heat is on for central Florida, where temperatures could reach the mid 90s. The Arizona desert will see temperatures soar to 100 degrees and it’ll be warm in the Pacific Northwest.

Areas along and south of I-96 (generally south of a line from Montague to Detroit) will have a Marginal Risk (level 1) of a severe thunderstorm this evening. The Storm Prediction Center says: “Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat. However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.”

This looks like the only chance we’ll have for severe weather this week.

Here’s forecast rainfall over the next 3 days combined. Lots of rain down in Indiana…more rain for parts of the Southwest.

Here’s a closer view. Our rain will come this evening/tonight. We expect a touch under a quarter inch north of Grand Rapids and about half an inch south of I-94.

Today will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures inland reaching the mid 70s. It’ll be 10 degrees cooler near Lake Michigan (South Haven gets a high of 62. It’ll be another breezy day. Peak winds Sunday included 50 mph at the Ford Airport in Grand Rapids, 45 mph in Holland, 42 mph in East Gr. Rapids and 41 mph at Pentwater and Ionia.

The latest 8-14 Day Outlook calls for a continuation of our cool weather pattern into the middle of the month. I don’t see a general frost/freeze at this point, but with a cool trough hanging around the Great Lakes, we can expect some cool nights if and when we clear out at night.

This was Mackinac Island at midday Sunday. The island is getting ready for the tourists. Note the horses. They had a light shower, which dampened Lake Shore Drive. The temperature was a cool 39°. The warmest temperature so far this year on the island has been 61°. They have had only 10 days since Nov. 4 when the temperature has climbed above 50°. (pic. from Horn’s Bar webcam).

Today is the one warm day. We’re back in the 50s tomorrow. We’ll continue Small Craft Advisories for Lake Michigan today. Winds will be southwest at 15-25 mph with gust in the 30-35 range.

Sunday morning update: Let’s start by going through the forecast. Inland, today will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. However, it’ll be on the windy side - southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to around 30-35 mph. It’ll also be about 10 degrees cooler at Lake Michigan. The chance of a light shower/sprinkle is not 0%, but most areas will stay dry.

Monday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs inland in the low 70s. Once again it will be on the windy side (winds stay southwest). It’ll be a good 10 degrees cooler at Lake Michigan. A shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible Monday night.

Tuesday will be cooler with a chance of a shower (mainly early). Look for highs in the mid-upper 50s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Average high temperatures are now in the mid 60s. There will be a small chance of a light shower Wednesday and Thursday.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for this Sunday PM…low 60s inland and low-mid 50s at Lake Michigan. It’ll be in 50s in northern Lower Michigan and most of Upper Michigan. You can see the warmer air (highs near 70 this PM) out along the Mississippi River.

Did you know that you can go snow skiing in Michigan today - Sunday, May 3rd? This pic. is from the Boyne Mt. facebook page and they write:

Helloooooo Boyne Mountain! It's Kyler, with your snow report.

”We are open for weekend skiing Sunday from 9am-1pm with Victor Glacier.

The park crew is working to have a setup with some features at the bottom of the glacier for as long as we can. They're putting in work to keep the fun going.

Victor Glacier is about 10 feet deep, and still going strong. Weekend riding in May is looking good.

Victor Glacier: Michigan's Longest Season

Mount Bohemia is officially closed for the season, which means Victor remains the winner as the longest season in Michigan. We're not stopping until Mother Nature makes us.

And don't forget about the Boho Bash on Saturday, May 16, our late-season celebration to close out the winter in style.

This Week's Weather

The weather is looking more like normal spring this week, so temps are looking good at preserving more snow for riding this weekend.”

The U.P. and northern Lower Michigan did see a few flurries as the colder air came in. Herman is up to 366” of snow for the winter, with Mt. Bohemia right behind at 360”.

Here’s 3-day rainfall for the contiguous U.S. The best bet for showers in southern Lower Michigan will be Monday night into Tuesday AM.

There may be a little more rain south and less rain to the north. The Query for Grand Rapids is less than 1/4” with a low end of just 0.03”. Around 1/2” is possible along and south of i-94. River levels will continue to fall in most areas.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook for this Sunday. There’s only one Marginal Risk area from Missouri into Illinois, mainly for very isolated strong wind and hail. Tornadoes are unlikely. A non-severe thundershower is possible in eastern Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook for Monday/Monday night. There is a level 1 Marginal Risk from eastern Kansas to southern Lower Michigan. SPC says: “…strong storms are possible during the afternoon…near the surface front from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer could support strong wind gusts.” So, to answer the question, will I see a severe storm at my residence Monday evening…probably no.

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook has above average temperatures west of the Mississippi River with cooler than average over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is for May 10-16. I think the overall cooler than average pattern that we are in now will end around the middle of the month and we’ll flip to warm, with lots of days in the 70s in the 2nd half of May (and maybe a few in the 80s).

This is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 9-15. This forecast comes out once a day in the mid-late afternoon.

The forecast has been consistently cool for the first two weeks of May, recognizing the pattern chance with the upper level trough that has formed over the Great Lakes and Northeast and the upper level ridge in the West (Rockies).

Here’s a map of the upper level wind flow. Our air at this level (500mb pressure surface) is coming south from Hudson Bay.

This map shows snow (in white) and ice (in yellow) cover as of Friday May 1. You can see the solid ice cover on Hudson Bay and there is still snow on he ground north of Minnesota and Lake Superior. When we get a north or northwest flow, cold air that has been sitting over that snow is going to move in. Plus, when it’s cloudy and the air passes over the cold water of the Great Lakes, it just doesn’t have a lot of time to warm up.

Friday’s high temperature in Grand Rapids was 46 and that was 18 degrees colder than the average high for the day which is 64. It was the coldest day since April 7.

April was 4.1 degrees warmer than average. We had 20 days that were warmer than average and just 9 days that were colder than average. Two days were exactly average. The warmest temperature was 80 on the 23rd and the coolest was 20 on the 7th.

Rainfall totaled 7.85” and that was 3.86” above average. We had two days when we set daily rainfall records: 1.53” on the 4th and 1.92” on the 14th. We had 15 days with measurable rain and another 4 days with a trace of rain.

It was a windy month with an average wind speed of 11.4 mph. On the 14th, Grand Rapids (Ford Airport) set an all-time record peak gust of 81 mph.

We had 9 days with thunderstorms and only a trace of snowfall.

Now, the first two weeks of May will overall be cool. Some of you may want to consider delaying the planting of any frost sensitive flowers and vegetables. That’s especially true if you live in a place that is prone to a late frost. A late frost is more common in rural valleys with sandy soil.

Here’s the 3 to 4 week temperature forecast. The Climate Prediction Center expects a pattern shift around the 15th that will bring back a warmer pattern and with it more thunderstorms.

Here’s total rainfall over the next 3 days. Much-needed rain will fall in the Southeast with only a few scattered light showers and sprinkles in West Michigan on Sunday.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Saturday. There is a Slight Risk (level 2) across much of northern Florida and extreme southern Georgia.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook map for Sunday. There’s a Marginal Risk (level 1) for large sections of Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms are not expected in Michigan on Sunday, though a storm is possible on Monday.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for today (Sat.). We’ll be a touch warmer than yesterday, but still well below average. Look for highs in the low 50s in inland areas and mid-upper 40s at Lake Michigan.

Also: Half dollar-sized hail in Houston. Gaining daylight in the month of May. Fresh snow on the mountaintops on Colorado. Significant flooding in San Antonio. Significant flooding in Brazil. Cool iridescent cloud in India. Side note…my uncle spent two years in India. He was in the Army and they needed someone who could fix motorcycles in India and Uncle Felix was the best motorcycle mechanic in Chicago.

We’ll be under a Freeze Warning late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A good portion of West Michigan will dip below the freezing mark.

All counties in West Michigan are under the Freeze Warning.

All of northern Lower Michigan is under a Freeze Warning Friday night/early Sasturday. The U.P. will also see freezing temperatures. Their vegetation isn’t far enough along to warrant a Freeze Warning.

The Freeze Warning extends down into northern Indiana. Much of the rest of Indiana has a Frost Advisory.

Here’s forecast low temperatures for early Saturday morning. Most of West Michigan will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s. The coldest spots (mainly north of Grand Rapids will reach the mid 20s.

The latest 8-14 day temperature forecast for May 8-14 keeps the Great Lakes in the below average category. By the end of this period, warmer air is moving east into the Plains states. So my educated guess is that we will be able to plant more frost sensitive flowers and vegetables during the middle of the month.

Rainfall is expected to be a touch below average in West Michigan. Above average rainfall is forecast across the Southern U.S., where we have had drought conditions.

Here’s combined rainfall over the next 3 days. A significant band of heavy rainfall is likely from New Mexico east to the Carolinas.

You can still find “winter” in parts of Alaska. This pic. is from the FAA camera at Point Lay on the northwest coast of our 49th State. I wonder if that pile on the right side of the pic. is all snow, or just a snow covered mound of something else.. This was taken at 8:39 pm. Daylight is quite long in May in Alaska.

Today we have a full moon. There are 2 full moons this month. Today we have the “Flower Moon”. The second full moon in a calendar month is called a “Blue Moon” though it’s not any bluer than any other full moon.

Also: Large hail falling in a swimming pool. Baseball-sized hail. For the first time since records of this began, there were no tornado warnings in Alabama in April. Volcano in Mexico.

A Freeze Warning (in dark blue on the map above) and a Frost Advisory (in lighter blue on the map above) will be in effect from 2 am until 9 am Thursday morning (4/30). This does include Grand Rapids, but does not include the lakeshore counties or the I-94 counties.

Measures should be taken to protect any frost sensitive plants. Many trees are in blossom, including fruit trees. Don’t worry about bulb flowers like tulips. They will wilt when it gets below freezing, but then they’ll pop back up when it warms back up above freezing.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories will most likely be in effect for Thursday night/Friday morning as well.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for much of Northern Lower Michigan. The only reason they are not in effect for Upper Michigan is that vegetation has not progresses enough for frost to cause damage. However, it will be just as cold tonight in the U.P.

The green on the map is a Flood Advisory for Emmet and Cheboygan Counties for another week (until May 7). There is a Flood Advisory in effect for the Tahquamenon River, which is a few inches above flood stage. There is a Flood Warning for the Michigamme River in the U.P.

Here’s a look at some forecast low temperatures for this Thursday night. Inland areas could drop to the upper 20s, while readings at the Lake Michigan shore should hold in the mid 30s (above freezing.

This graphic is from the National Weather Service in northern Indiana. This includes the Michigan counties that border Indiana. This area should not see frost tonight, but there will be a chance of frost/freeze tomorrow night (early Friday). In fact, we may have a little better chance of frost Friday AM.

The overall cool pattern should continue through much of the first half of May. There will be an upper level ridge over the Western U.S. and a trough over the Great Lakes. While this can be a cool and occasionally showery pattern, it should reduce the threat of severe weather in the Great Lakes for the first half of May.

Here’s the 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Lower Michigan may be slightly above average, but without a lot of Gulf moisture, we shouldn’t see the rainfall amounts that we’ve had in April.

This pattern should give some much needed rain to the southern and southeastern U.S.

We’ve had a lot of severe weather in the U.S. during March and April. We should see less severe weather over the next week. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1) over portions of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin.

The Severe Weather Outlook Area for Friday/Friday night shows two Marginal Risk areas from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Again, hopefully we’ll get some much needed rain in these areas and little severe weather. Again, no storms in the Great Lakes.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for Thursday…low-mid 50s inland, upper 40s near Lake Michigan and in northern Lower Michigan. Much of Upper Michigan will see high temperatures in the low 40s with Copper Harbor expected to see a high of just 38.

Here’s rainfall over the next 3 days. Lots of thunderstorms are expected from New Mexico to Georgia. There will be some significant rain in the state of Maine.

Over the next 3 days, much of West Michigan will see light amounts of rain with Grand Rapids expecting less than a tenth of an inch.

The (weak) La Nina pattern we’ve had for much of the last couple years is forecast to flip to an El Nino Pattern this late spring and summer.

The map above shows current global sea-surface temperature anomalies, which is the difference in sea surface temperature from average.

Look along the Equator west of South America. Here we find water temperatures are a little bit warmer than average. You can also see a deep red blog of quite warm water around 90W longitude.

The Climate Prediction Center says: “ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored to continue through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation.

So, what does that mean for our weather. First, this is just one piece of the long-range forecast (jigsaw) puzzle. It’s not the only piece. Head to this link and this link to see a record of El Ninos and La Ninas.

When we have a very strong El Nino (1982-83 for instance), we are likely to have a warm winter with less snow. On Christmas Day in 1982, Grand Rapids had a high temperature of 65° and we had only 36” of snow that winter.

However, we’ve had some really cold and snowy winters with a weak El Nino. Look at the winters of 1976-77 (tied for coldest of the century in West Michigan) and 1977-78 (anyone remember the blizzard of Jan. 26, 1978?).

The winter of 1951-52 was a moderate El Nino and that was the snowiest winter Grand Rapids has ever had with 132.2” at the airport and 144” downtown. We had 6 consecutive days in November 1951 with record low temperatures, including lows of 6° above on Nov. 5th and 9° on Nov. 6th.

The position of the warmest water along the Equator makes a difference. Is it near the South American Coast? or out toward the middle of the Pacific?

Here’s a map showing the general pattern in a year with a fairly strong El Nino. It’s generally wetter than average across the Southern U.S., even though the number of hurricanes in the western Atlantic is usually a bit below average.

There is generally dry weather across the Ohio Valley (the opposite of a strong La Nina). It’s warmer than average from eastern Alaska down to the northern Rockies, across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The warm air means less (sometimes much less) lake-effect snow. So the difference in snowfall between the Lake Michigan shore and inland areas would be less.

April is ending around 5° warmer than average and wet. May will start out cooler and a big drier than average. We’ve had 75.4” of snow in Grand Rapids this past winter. Muskegon has had 108.5”. If I were a betting man (and I’m not), I’d bet those totals will be lower next winter…but keep in mind that the average high/low temperature in Grand Rapids is 31°/19°. If we’re 5° warmer than that, then it’s 36°/24°. It’s still winter and with an average low of 24°, ski resorts will still be able to make snow at night at least some nights.

I’ll continue to track the developing El Nino. Remember, if it’s a strong El Nino - good chance of a relatively warm winter with less snow…weak El Nino and it could go either way.

Here’s the 3-4 week forecast for May 9-22 from the Climate Prediction Center. Below average temperatures are likely over the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. It’s likely temperatures will be a touch cooler than average over the next 10 days and maybe beyond that. So far, this month of April is running 5.1 degrees warmer than average. We’ve had 7.6” of rain this month, but only a trace of snow.

Rainfall is expected to be a touch above average over much of the country, including Michigan.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for today (Tue.). We’ll reach the upper 50s to near 60 inland, and low-mid 50s at the Lake Michigan shore. It’ll be a touch warmer - upper 60s - over in Detroit.

It got pretty windy for a while Monday PM. Here are some peak wind gusts. Approximately 60,000 customers lost power. There were many trees, wire and limbs downed by the wind and a couple of semi-trucks tipped over.

April has been warm and wet. We’re currently 5.1 degrees warmer than average and we’ve had 7.60” of rain in Grand Rapids this month. Blossoms are 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. Toward the end of this week, we may see a bit of frost in a few spots. We can get a frost all the way into mid-May.

The map above shows snow cover as of the morning of Monday, April 27. Two Michigan ski areas are expecting to be open this weekend. Last check of Michigan ski conditions at www.onthesnow.com showed Boyne Mt. open daily. They have 2 lifts operating with a 20” base. Mt. Bohemia in the U.P. will be open this weekend. They also have 2 lifts operating.

Herman, Michigan, west of Marquette is finally down to just a trace of snow on the ground. They had a continuous snow cover of 3” or more for 151 days, from Nov. 26 through April 25. They had 365” of snow this past winter. The maximum snow depth was 68 inches on March 16.

Here’s snow cover as of Monday 4/27 for the contiguous U.S. and southern Canada. A total of 9.2% of the contiguous U.S. has a snow cover. That’s almost all in the higher elevations of the western U.S. Snowfall this winter was below average over much of the West, especially in Colorado. Winter Park has had 197” of snow this winter, compared to an average of 345”, so that’s just 57% of of average. Breckenridge Ski Area had 155” of snow this winter, compared to an average of 355”. That was just 43% of average.

Other season snowfalls at western ski resorts this winter: Mammoth Mt. California 292”, Alta, Utah 319”, Kirkwood, California 324”, Alyeska, Alaska 412”, Mt. Baker, Washington 472”.

This is a webcam grab of Centennial Park in Holland around 2:30 am this Saturday. LOTS of tulips in bloom now, literally over a million blooming in Holland right now. The blossoms are out on the ornamental pear trees downtown and we’re counting down the days until Tulip Time. There are two big parades now at Tulip Time…the Children’s Parade on Thursday and the Music Parade on Saturday (2 pm).

So far, April is averaging 5.2 degrees warmer than average. We’ve had 16 days that have been warmer than average, 7 days that have been cooler than average and one day that was exactly average.

Here’s a cool pic. The sun is setting at Michigan City, Indiana. You can see the skyline of the city of Chicago to the left of the sun. Those skyscrapers are 40 miles away.

The record high temperature today is 86 and that occurred back in 1915. The record low temperature was 22 in 1967 (the year we had the big blizzard on Jan. 26. Sunrise today is at 6:43 am and sunset at 8:37 pm. We’re approaching 14 hours of daylight. The average high temperature for Grand Rapids is up to 62 and the average low is 41.

This should be a nice weekend. We’ll become partly to mostly sunny today and stay mostly sunny on Sunday. Here’s a map showing forecast high temperatures today with mid 60s inland and mid 50s along the lakeshore where the north wind will be coming over the cool water of Lake Michigan. So, the shore at S. Haven and Benton Harbor will be about 10 degrees cooler than inland areas like Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.

Temperatures should be similar on Sunday. The weather should be very good for the Kalamazoo Marathon…dry with temperatures in the mid 40s at sunrise, mid 50s when most of the runners are finishing.

I have never run a marathon. I did some 5Ks and one 10K (when I finished next to last). My daughter #1 has run a few marathons. I believe she was there for the infamous Chicago Marathon of Oct. 7, 2007. There were record high temperatures in the upper 80s that day and the race had to be cancelled when too many participants experienced dehydration. A total of 315 runners were treated at hospitals and medical tents that day.

Here’s 3-day rainfall (Sat. - Mon.). Some significant rain in the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Mid-Atlantic. A period of rain is possible in San Diego and across Nevada, which is the driest state in the U.S.

This is a 3-day total rainfall graphic. So, today it’s Saturday - Monday. We know Saturday and Sunday will be dry. Most all of Monday will be dry, but probably after sunset a band of showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west. This graphic counts the start of that rain and gives Grand Rapids 0.03”. Now the European model gives Grand Rapids 1/3rd inch of rain from sunset Monday into early Tuesday. That’s not enough to have much affect on area rivers. So far this month, Grand Rapids has had 7.19” of rain and that’s 4.15” above average.

Rainfall was meager on Friday, with 0.12” of rain officially in Grand Rapids. Just a trace of rain fell in Muskegon, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. Jackson had 0.30” of rain and they had a 52 mph wind gust.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today (Saturday). There is a level 4 (moderate risk, red color on the map) for SE Oklahoma. No thunderstorms in Michigan this week.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Monday. It looks like another big day of severe weather, with a large level 3 Enhance Risk area centered on Illinois. Again, tornadoes are possible, scattered wind damage is likely. Storms should be weakening as they cross Lake Michigan well after sunset.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading my blog.

The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook continues to forecast cooler than average temperatures over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Keep in mind that this is a 7-day average…it may be cooler than average at the beginning of the period, but starting to trend to warm toward the end of the 7 days. Nevertheless, I’d continue to hold off planting anything frost sensitive.

Here’s high temperatures from Thursday. Look at the top temperature and the bottom temperature. Traverse City reached a warm 81, while not all that far away, Mackinac Island had a high temperature of just 45. Traverse City had a warm, south wind off the land, while Mackinac Island had a damp, brisk east wind off Lake Huron.

It was the first 80 degree temperature of the year for Grand Rapids, and probably the warmest day we’ll see for maybe a couple of weeks. Nice pic. here courtesy of the city of Holland. Overall, the weather should be cool and pleasant for Tulip Time.

Here’s high temperatures for this PM. We’ll be a few degrees cooler than yesterday because of more clouds and a chance of a shower or t-shower. Winds will shift from the south early to the west off Lake Michigan, so temps. may drop a few degrees when that happens. South Haven gets a high of 62...and just 47 in the U.P. at Manistique where the south wind will be coming off Lake Michigan. That’s an interesting place. Sometimes a cold front will come thru Manistique and the temperature will go up a few degrees as the wind shifts from the south off Lake Michigan to the west off the land.

Speaking of the U.P. Marquette was down to 1” of snow on the ground at midnight. That inch will melt today, leaving just the remains of the snow piles near the airport. They’ve had snow on the ground every day since Nov. 25th. The town of Herman still had 11” on the ground Friday AM, but I bet much of that melted with temps. yesterday in the 60s.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for this Friday. SPC has added a Marginal Risk Area for southern Lower Michigan away from Lake Michigan and for much of Indiana and western Ohio.

SPC says: “ a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.

The weekend will be dry and storm-free in Michigan, but we’ll have to keep an eye out for next Monday PM/night. This is the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Monday PM/night. The 15% (level 2 risk) comes up to Berrien Co. The rest of our area could be in a level 1 risk.

This is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 30-May 6. Cooler than average temperatures are likely in the Great Lakes. It’s forecast to be warmer than average in the Florida Peninsula, South Texas and along the West Coast. With this pattern, we may not be done with frost in Lower Michigan. For much of West Michigan, the average last frost is in the first week of May.

So, for many of you, it’s probably best off to hold up on planting frost sensitive flowers and vegetables. Anything that can take a little frost can go in now. I planted some pansies Wed. afternoon.

Some good news here for most of us. Rainfall is expected to be below average. This means mostly good weather for Tulip Time in Holland MI and rivers levels should fall back down to average levels.

In May, cool air often comes down into Michigan from the north. In late fall and winter, cold air can come in from the west. There is snow on the ground now from the Lake Superior area north to the North Pole. Air that comes down from Canada in early May is usually cool air that has been over the snow pack and that has little time to warm up before it gets here.

The map above is North American snow and ice cover. Most of the big lakes in Canada are still frozen over. The polar vortex has been hanging around Hudson Bay for much of the late winter/early spring and the ice there is thick. Here’s the Polar Bear Tracker. The bears are still out on the ice and may be yet for another 6-8 weeks.

This is a screen grab from the webcam at Point Hope, Alaska. The sun is shining. Here, the days are getting longer at a fairly rapid clip. Today they get 8 1/2 minutes more daylight than yesterday. Today the sun rises at 6:35 am and doesn’t set until 11:37 pm. They are north of the Arctic Circle, so they get 24-hours of daylight during mid-summer. The sun will rise on May 24 at Point Hope and won’t set again until July 19th. You can see the winter snow has barely started to melt.

Yesterday, Deadhorse, Alaska had a high temperature of -8F and a low temperature of -20F. Bettles AK had a low temperature of -17F. They still have 23” of snow on the ground at Bettles. The Barrow Airport had a high temperature of -2F. Windy Point AK reported a snow cover of 150” on Wednesday. That’s 12 1/2 feet!

On the other side of the coin, Ketchikan AK, one of the wettest places in North America, has been dry for 3 of the last 4 days. Their April rainfall has only been 55% of average. They have now gone 16 days without a wind gust over 27 mph. Temperatures there have been pretty consistent. The warmest high temperature this month at Ketchikan has been 56° and the lowest high temperature has been 42°.

Ketchikan had 9.49” of rain in March. That’s actually below the average rainfall for March, which is 10.98”. This March, Ketchikan had measurable rain (and snow) on 28 of 31 days and a trace of rain on the other 3 days.

Here’s high temperatures today in Michigan. After a little scattered early morning fog, the sun will be out for much of the day. Inland areas should make a run at 80°. It will be cooler right at Lake Michigan in the PM. This will likely be the warmest day we’ll have the rest of this month and maybe the warmest day we’ll see until the 2nd week of May.

Here’s forecast rainfall for the next 3 days. For West Michigan, our rain will come in the form of showers and non-severe thundershowers Friday into Friday night. The weekend looks dry and pleasant.

Here’s forecast rainfall for Grand Rapids Friday/Friday night. Expected is about 1/3rd inch…with a low end 0.1” (so the chance of rain would be high - 80-90%). We have a high end of around 3/4 inch. The rain looks pretty uniform…about the same amount across the whole area. This isn’t enough rain to cause a 2nd crest on mid-size and larger rivers.

Happy Thursday - thanks for reading my blog.

First, a quick personal note. Today (April 22, Wednesday) is our 48th wedding anniversary. The first pic. is Gayle and me leaving the wedding. The second pic. is earlier this month at Grand Haven (yes, it was breezy and cold that day). We had dinner at Noto’s at the Bil-Mar and walked up and down the beach. Thanks to Gayle for being such an awesome helper to me all these years. Someone will ask…the weather on our wedding day was awesome…mostly sunny, low 60s. We left the reception in a hot-air balloon. Then we left for Disneyworld (which included a behind-the-scenes tour).

OK - back to weather - This was sunset Tuesday at Muskegon. The scattered showers moved fairly quickly to the south and we’re left with partly cloudy skies and a little scattered fog to start this Wednesday.

This pic. was taken from the lighthouse at Michigan City, Indiana. Look real close - you can see the sun setting into the skyline of Chicago, which is about 40 miles to the west.

Here’s a pic. of downtown Chicago from the water intake, which is 2.75 miles east of the shore. There’s a beautiful sailboat passing by just before sunset on Tuesday.

Look for the moon tonight, a crescent moon, up for a couple hours in the west or west before setting. To the right of the moon is the Pleiades and to the left and up a bit is Taurus (the bull). Venus is the bright “star” to the west this evening.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for today. Much of West Michigan reaches the low-mid 70s. The wind should be light, so a lake breeze will develop and cool those areas by the water. You can see S. Haven reaches just 60 today and the Ludington Airport 62. Copper Harbor in the U.P. should hold in the 40s.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Area for today/tonight (Wed.). There’s a Marginal Risk along and south of I-94. with a General Risk (not severe) south of a line from South Haven to Lansing to Detroit. Most of West Michigan will be dry today. There is another Marginal Risk Area in the High Plains from Texas to South Dakota.

Here’s forecast snowfall over the next 3 days. There will be a few light snowshowers in the higher elevations of northern New England, but the significant snow will be out West. A foot and a half of snow could fall in the mountains of Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks.

There is still some snow on the ground in parts of Upper Michigan. Marquette lost 2” of snow yesterday. They are down to 8” of snow on the ground. Tuesday morning, the weather observer at Herman, Michigan still had 17” of snow on the ground. The most they had on the ground this winter was 68” or 5 feet 8 inches…not counting the drifts.

Here’s forecast rainfall for the next 3 days combined. It stays mostly dry in the Southeast, Southwest and southern High Plains. There’s some rain printed out for Michigan. This is a 3-day combined total. We’ll be dry today and tomorrow, so the forecast rain on the map is for Friday, mainly PM and night.

This model is forecasting around 1/4” of rain Friday PM. That’s not enough to affect river levels much and they should continue to slowly fall over the next week.

The 8-14 Day Temperature Forecast calls for below average temperatures over the Great Lakes. I would not be surprised if we get a Frost Advisory in early May.

Rainfall for April 29 - May 5 should be close to average. We should continue to see rivers fall to near average flow.

Also: High wind video from Missouri. Cool video of clouds coming off the Rock of Gibraltar. Volcano erupting in Japan. 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Japan. Hailstorm in Spain. Very heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Tuesday was the 7th day this year that a tornado warning was issued in California. Incredible mammatus clouds in China (not a current video). Old flash flood videos.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this (Tue.) afternoon/evening from the Storm Prediction Center. Southern Lower Michigan is in the light green General Thunderstorm Outlook. There is a small level 1 or Marginal Risk for NE Illinois and NW Indiana.

They say: “Visible satellite and radar imagery show a line of high-based showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the trough over southern WI. As these storms track into northern IL/IN, continued heating/weak destabilization will increase the risk of gusty/locally damaging wind gusts and small hail in the strongest cores this afternoon.”

Here's lightning data as of around 1:30 pm...virtually none in Michigan and a lot south of Milwaukee. The storms are moving NW to SE, so the best chance of storms will be in NE. Illinois, NW Indiana and the southwest corner of Lower Michigan down toward Berrien County.

Here’s a plotted weather map from 2 pm today (Tue.). The black number to the upper left in each station plot is the temperature. In Grand Rapids, it was 65. The number in the lower left of each station plot is the dewpoint, a measure of the amount of moisture in the air. In Grand Rapids that was 43. The number in red in the lower right of each station plot is the peak gust of wind in the last hour. In Grand Rapids, that was 29.

Note how temperatures and dewpoints are higher across the lake in Illinois and northwest Indiana. Grand Rapids has a dewpoint of 43, while Gary, Indiana is 50. Grand Rapids has a temperature of 65, while the Chicago area has temperatures in the mid 70s. So, that’s why the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of a severe storm in northeast IL and northwest IN and not here in Grand Rapids.

Bottom line…The showers and storms would be along the trough, so if you do get a shower or storm, it won’t last very long. There’s also a little better chance of a shower or storm south of I-94 than there is up along US 10 (Ludington to Reed City to Bay City).

Here’s the 66-hour rainfall forecast. The light green color is for 1/10th of an inch of rain or less. I queried Grand Rapids and it gives us just 0.06” with a Low End of nothing. Rainfall may be a touch higher toward in the Indiana border in the evening and IL, IN and OH could see a shower develop Wed. PM.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Wednesday. Michigan is not in it…it should be a dry day statewide. The trough I mentioned earlier will sink south, giving a chance of an isolated shower or storm from central Illinois to northern Virginia.

There is a level 1 Marginal Outlook in the Plains from South Dakota to Texas. There could be isolated storms with hail and strong winds there. The High Plains had a very dry winter, so they could use any rain they get on Wednesday.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Thursday PM/night. Once again, it does not include Michigan. We should have another dry day here. Severe Weather is likely from Iowa to Oklahoma.

Here’s high temperatures for this Tuesday. It’ll be significantly warmer this afternoon than it was Sunday and Monday with highs inland in the mid-upper 60s to low 70s along and south of I-94. It will be cooler near Lake Michigan with a high in the upper 50s at South Haven. The wind has picked up and there are small craft advisories in effect for Lake Michigan.

Also: The Rapid River in the U.P. is certainly living up to its name. There is still snow in parts of Upper Michigan. Marquette still had 10” of snow on the ground at midnight. However, S. Ste. Marie melted their last inch of snow on Monday and they report just a trace of snow on the ground this morning. They had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for 144 days.

A Freeze Warning has been in effect this Monday morning. Most low temperatures are bottoming out in the mid-upper 20s. With mostly clear skies and calm or nearly calm winds, lakeshore areas could be just as cold as inland areas this Monday AM.

Tuesday morning there could be some scattered, mainly light frost, but after that I don’t see any more frost the rest of this week into early next week.

The past couple nights we’ve been enjoying a waxing (more of the moon is visible each successive night) crescent moon. The bright star to the west in the evening is the planet Venus. To the left in the southwestern sky is the planet Jupiter.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday/Tuesday night No areas outlined for severe weather, but they have outlined an area with a chance of a non-severe thunderstorm from Illinois to NW Pennsylvania…in Michigan that’s along and south of I-94.

Here’s some good news…there were no reports of severe weather anywhere in the U.S. on Sunday…none…zip…nada!

Contrast Sunday to last Friday. We’re up to 790 severe report from Friday PM/night, including 72 tornadoes. It’s amazing how the weather pattern can change in just a few days. The 790 severe reports looks like the most severe reports in a single day since 5/26/2024, or nearly two years ago.

We had 3 wind damage reports in SW Michigan…near Watervliet, Plainwell and a 3 mile long damage path near Moline.

Here’s tornado warnings by state so far this year. Illinois has the most, Wisconsin is in 2nd place. Michigan has issued nearly twice as many tornado warnings as Kansas. California has issued 6 tornado warnings compared to just 1 in Nebraska. Pretty weird.

Wisconsin had 23 tornadoes last week. They average 23 during an entire year. Three of those 23 tornadoes last week were EF3. Up until last week, Wisconsin had just 4 EF tornadoes in the last 15 years combined!

Here’s a look at sunset at Muskegon Sunday evening (4/19). The water temperature at the Holland Channel was up to 56 on Sunday. At the Port Sheldon buoy, the water tremperature is 54 and at the Muskegon buoy it’s 53. The Reeds Lake water temperature is 52.

Sunrise is at 6:52 AM and sunset at 8:30 pm. Daylight continues to increase at the rate of around 2 1/2 miles per day. The average high temperature in Grand Rapids reaches 60 degrees today, the average low temperature is now 39.

Sunday’s high temperatures ranged from 51 at Battle Creek and Kalamazoo to a chilly 29 at Sault Ste. Marie. Grand Rapids peaked at 47. It was cooler at the lake with highs of 42 at the Holland Beach and Holland Beach and 41 at the Muskegon Beach.

Here’s the 5-day forecast. It’ll be dry Monday - Thursday, with showers and maybe thundershower late Thursday night and Friday. There’s maybe a 20% chance of a shower or thundershower Tuesday PM along and south of I-94. It’ll be cool today, but with sunshine and relatively light winds (W-SW 5-10 mph) it’ll be a nice day. Then we warm up above average again Tuesday afternoon.

Friday/Friday night there were 150 tornado warnings issued in the contiguous U.S. and 311 severe thunderstorm warnings.

After a cool start to Tuesday, temperatures are headed above average again Tuesday afternoon and beyond. We should see a dry 5 days giving river levels a chance to go downward. Grand Rapids has had 2 1/2 times average rainfall (252%) since March 1.

There is still snow on the ground in the Keweenaw Peninsula and from their east to near Sault Ste. Marie. Marquette (airport) still had 9” of snow on the ground Saturday AM. They have had 274.7” of snow this season and that’s 83.8” above average. Sault Ste. Marie has had 188.6” of snow this past winter and that’s 70.6” above average.

Also: Physics is phun. Floodwaters in downtown Grand Rapids. Winter is certainly not over in Canada.

The map above from the Storm Prediction Center shows where severe thunderstorms hit Friday/Friday night (4/17/26). There’s a red dot plotted where there was a tornado reported, a blue dot for a severe wind report and a green dot for a severe weather report (1” in diameter or greater).

There were 72 reports of tornadoes, 443 reports of wind damage (7 reports of winds over 75 mph) and 275 reports of severe hail (with 29 reports of hail 2” in diameter or greater). That’s a total of 790 severe reports, the most severe weather reports of any day in 2026 so far. In fact, there was only one day last year (5/16/25) that exceeded 745 severe reports in a single day.

The NWS issued 311 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Friday/Friday night and 150 tornado warnings.

Keep in mind that the final tornado count may be a bit lower, as duplicate reports of the same tornado are eliminated. I only found one tornado injury, that was in Saratoga, Iowa.

According to SPC, Michigan has recorded 20 tornadoes so far in 2026. That’s already more than the annual average (16). All of the tornadoes have been south of a line from Grand Haven to Saginaw. There was one possible EF2, but the rest were all EF0 or EF1 (relatively weak tornadoes).

Lightning caused a significant fire at the York Creek Apartments in Comstock Park Friday night (4/17). I live about a mile away and I jumped when I saw the bright flash and heard the very loud thunder that followed a few seconds after the flash.

It looked like every acre of southwest Lower Michigan had a thunderstorm Friday evening/night. The gust front, usually on the leading edge of a thunderstorm, passed through with a peak gust of around 35-40 mph.

Rainfall in Grand Rapids has totaled 11.92” since March 1. That’s 7.19” above average or 2 1/2 times average rainfall (252%). The period from Jan. 1 - April 18 has been the wettest ever for that 108-day period

This week (April 19-25) should be mostly dry - giving flood waters a chance to recede. The best chance of rain isn’t until Thursday night into Friday.

This lake is in the soybean field just south of the Alpine Athletic Field. Usually, this lake isn’t there, but when there is a heavy rain or rapid snowmelt in spring, a temporary lake forms.

I’ve been walking here for years and this pic. (taken Thursday 4 16 26) is the biggest I have ever seen it. I’d say it covered more than an acre and was probably 2 feet deep in the middle. It’s become the home for numerous ducks and geese. This is the largest of several temporary ponds in the fields south and east of the athletic field. Creeks in the area were bankfull.

This map shows the plotted location of tornadoes, large hail and wind damage in the contiguous U.S. from 7 am on Tue. to 7 am Wed. (4/14-15/2026). There were 21 reported tornadoes in four states, including eight confirmed tornadoes in southern Lower Michigan. National Weather Service storm survey teams found 5 locations in Michigan that were hit with EF1 tornadoes (winds of 86-110 mph winds) and 3 locations where EF0 tornadoes occurred (winds of 65-85 mph winds).

There were also confirmed areas that were hit by hail and thunderstorm winds of up to 81 mph. It looks like every acre of southern Lower Michigan experienced thunderstorms, with some of the storms containing frequent lightning, continuous thunder and heavy rain that caused local flooding.

Three tornadoes were confirmed by survey team(s) that went out from the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids and five twisters were confirmed by survey team(s) from the National Weather Service in White Lake (Detroit).

Here’s a map of the first tornado, which started four miles south west of Allegan. It moved a little south of due east, crossing M40 and lifted 4 1/4 miles west northwest of Otsego, coming close to the Bittersweet Ski Area. Peak winds with this storm were estimated to be 80 mph. The tornado downed dozens of large trees and power lines on it’s 6.5 mile path. It was approx. 100 yards wide, or as wide as a football field is long.

The second tornado started shortly after the first tornado lifted. This twister was an EF1 with 100 mph winds. It was on the ground for 16 miles, starting just north-northeast of Otsego and continuing all the way to Hickory Corners. The tornado crossed US 131 and put debris from a nearby building across the highway, resulting in a traffic jam both ways. It was 175 yards wide. Dozens of buildings were damaged along the tornado’s path. The tornado was moving at approximately 45 mph.

An interesting note, south of the tornado, there was some significant thunderstorm wind damage town through Otsego and Plainwell. This may have been a case of rear flank downdraft. It would be interesting to have a temperature and pressure trace from near Otsego and also to know if it was raining and how hard it may have been raining during the strong wind in Otsego.

The third tornado was a strong EF1 with winds of 110 mph. Now 111 mph is EF2, so this was a significant tornado. It was on the ground for 24 minutes and covered 18.75 miles, starting near the town of Fenwick and ending a little past Perrinton shortly after it crossed M-57. This twister also traveled at about 45 mph. Over a dozen barns and outbuildings were damaged or destroyed and about 10 homes had roof damage.

We also had an 80 mph wind gust recorded at the Ford Airport in Grand Rapids (official NWS observation) and an 81 mph gust at the ASOS weather station at the airport. The 80 mph reading if verified, might tie the all-time record highest gust ever in Grand Rapids which was set during the Armistice Day Storm of 11/11/1940. That was not a thunderstorm, but just the circulation around a very deep low pressure center. Also, Tuesday night we recorded a gust to 61 mph in Comstock Park and a 60 mph gust in East Grand Rapids.

The tornadoes in the eastern half of the Lower Peninsula occurred near Ann Arbor (EF1), Lincoln Park (EF1), Albee (EF1), Durand (EF0) and Bridgeport (EF0).

As far as I know, there were no serious injuries from the 8 tornadoes Tues. night. I think this brings Michigan up to around 13 tornadoes for 2026. It’s certainly been an active spring.

Beautiful tulips in bloom in Holland MI - blossoms coming out on the ornamental pear trees downtown. It’s a little early, but there are are both early and late blooming varieties of tulips that will show off their brilliant colors over the next month. Holland is a great place to visit during late April and early May.

Quick forecast: Still a chance of a shower or thunderstorm today - best chance south of a line from Holland to Saginaw - dry and relatively warm on Friday, low-mid 70s - a good chance of showers/storms Friday night into Saturday - windy and significantly colder on Sunday - an overall dry pattern early next week.

It was a busy day for me yesterday and we had the severe weather in the evening. So, I didn’t start a new thread. I’ll update this when I get up in the AM - hopefully with new information on a possible tornado or two here in West Michigan Tuesday evening.

This was the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday issued Tuesday AM. There was an Enhanced Outlook Area (level 3) across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and western Lake Michigan. That was surrounded by a Slight Risk Area (level 2) that ran from Mexico to Ontario...and that was surrounded by a Marginal Risk Area that ran south to Indianapolis and north to the Mackinac Bridge.

SPC says: “Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts will be possible.”

This map showed the odds of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point today/tonight. That’s a 5% risk in West Michigan (generally south of a line from Ludington to Mt. Clemens.

This is the Severe Wind Outlook for today/tonight. That’s a 5% risk for West Michigan. The higher 15% risk is from Milwaukee and Chicago to the southwest and to the east of Toledo.

Overnight, winds gusted to 48 mph at Muskegon, 47 mph at Holland, 45 mph at Fremont and 36 mph in Grand Rapids.

West Michigan is in the 15% hail outlook. That’s a 15% chance of a severe hail report within 25 miles of a given point. The higher 30% chance is across Lake Michigan in Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa.

Here’s the Severe Weather Forecast Map for Wednesday/Wednesday Night. Southern Lower Michigan is in the Marginal (level 1) Risk Area. Most of the day it won’t be raining, but the odds of catching at least one shower or storm is 70%. Flooding continues to be an issue.

The Severe Weather Outlook Map for Thursday/Thursday night has just a level 1 Marginal Risk from the Missouri Bootheel to the Detroit area. Threats include an isolated strong wind gust, marginally severe hail and local flooding.

Here’s storm reports for Monday, 4/13 as of 5 am. The number is likely to go up a bit yet. There were 15 reported tornadoes - most relatively small and short-lived - 36 reports of wind damage and 165 reports of severe hail, with 44 reports of hail bigger than golf balls. Here in Michigan, we had 2” diameter hail at Portland in Ionia Co. and 1.25” diameter hail at Hastings in Barry Co.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for this PM. We’ll see readings range from the low 80s south of Grand Rapids and inland from the lake to the 60s near Lake Michigan to just 40 degrees up at Copper Harbor in Upper Michigan. The average high temperature for mid-April is 57.

Here’s high temperatures from Monday. Again, a 40-degree spread from the Indiana border counties to the Keweenaw Peninsula. It was in the 70’s at Cadillac, but only low 50s at Traverse City.

Here’s the latest (as I type this) 7 day combined rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. The heaviest rain is forecast to be in Lower Michigan, northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. The bright red is 2-3”. That’s on top of already wet ground, that would certainly produce more flooding. Fortunately, most rivers (including the Grand River in Kent Co.) have crested and have been falling over the last 24 hours. I picked up another 1/2” last night.

Look at the rainfall across N. Lower Michigan. Significant flooding was noted on the Crooked River and the water from Black Lake was approaching homes along the lake.

This is flooding at South Higgins Lake State Park (from their facebook page). This is going to get worse before it gets better unfortunately.

There’s a Flood Watch in effect for Oceana, Newaygo and Mecosta Counties to the north.

The Flood Watch covers all of northern Lower Michigan with a Flood Warning for most of Cheboygan and much of Emmet Counties. Here’s flooding in Cheboygan Co.

All of Upper Michigan is under a Flood Watch. At midnight, the Marquette Airport still had 33” of snow on the ground.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Lower Michigan is in the dark green Marginal Risk Area. SPC says: “Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.”

Tuesday PM, most of West Michigan is in the level 2 or Slight Risk Area (yellow on the map above) SPC says: “With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind gusts.”

Winds will die down a little bit today. Peak gusts Sunday included 51 mph in Grand Rapids, 49 mph at Muskegon, 48 mph at Holland, 47 mph at Norton Shores and 46 mph at Battle Creek. I was at Manhattan Park in East Grand Rapids. I saw at least 3 kids/parents trying to get kites to stay in the air - lots of people in the park.

High temperatures Sunday included 82 in Detroit, 80 at Kalamazoo, Benton Harbor and Allegan, 79 in Grand Rapids, Battle Creek, Ionia, Marshall and Coldwater, 78 aet the Holland Airport, 73 in Fremont, 66 at Ludington and just 37 at Sault Ste. Marie.

Check out the snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Flash flood in Saudi Arabia.

One final note. There is a very large hurricane with a well-developed eye in the western Pacific Ocean. It’s been given the name “Sinlaku” and it’s packing winds of 170 mph. The worst of the storm is missing Guam (but they do get wind and rain), but it looks like the island of Tinian in the Mariana Island took a direct hit. The island has just a few thousand people living on it. The storm will weaken as it moves to the north over open water.

Happy Sunday. This week will be quite wet, with much of West Michigan getting 1-3” of rain. It will also be relatively warm, with temperatures running a good 10-15 degrees warmer than average (the average high temperature is now 56). It’s also going to be windy, with a S-SW wind at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. The southwest wind will keep it a little cooler near Lake Michigan.

This is the 7-day combined rainfall total forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Some of the heaviest rain in the U.S. will fall in West Michigan this week. A front will move back and forth, bringing successive rounds of rain and storms from Texas to the Great Lakes.

Here’s the 66 Hour snowfall forecast. Note there is none forecast east of the Rockies - too warm for snow. The snow in the higher elevations out West is welcome as they are below average for snowfall this winter. The Sierra Nevada mountains of California should see heavy snowfall totals this week, measured in feet, not inches.

Here’s 66 Hour Rainfall. Note there is less rain south and more north. That’s about 1/4” for Fort Wayne, 1/2”-3/4” for South Bend and Coldwater MI. and 3/4” - 1” for I-94.

Here’s a close-up map of expected rainfall from Sunday - Tuesday. Grand Rapids gets around 2”. The +2” area extends to the north toward Cadillac. The Grand River begins down near Hillsdale and rainfall totals won’t be quite as high there. However, if this map verifies, this means significant rain on the Muskegon, White, Pentwater, Pere Marquette and Manistee Rivers.

After Tuesday, periods of rain and storms may continue until next weekend. It won’t be raining all the time. In fact, most of the time it won’t be raining, but this will be a week to keep an umbrella handy.

We had a light offshore wind Saturday, so Lake Michigan was pretty calm. This pic. shows the Muskegon Channel in the early morning. I count 7 boats in the water in this pic. from the Muskegon Glerl camera. I would assume they were fishing boats.

Today and tomorrow will be breezy with a southwest onshore wind that could gust to 30 mph. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Monday afternoon.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook map for this Sunday PM. Michigan is in the light green “General” Thunderstorm Outlook Area. So, while we might get a thunderstorm, it’s unlikely to be severe. There is a Slight Risk (level 2) in Texas and Marginal (level 1) outlooks in the Rockies and across parts of northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Monday. Most of Lower Michigan is in the level 1 or Marginal Risk Area, mainly for isolated strong wind. SPC says: “…supercells capable of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain, it appears most probable from southeast MN toward south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.”

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday/Tuesday night. This looks like our best chance of a strong to severe storm. The yellow area is a Slight Risk (level 2) and that runs from Texas to Ontario. SPC says: “…surface boundary should support isolated to scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting an all-hazards risk. Given uncertainty related to potential airmass contamination from early day convection and cloud cover, and potential capping concerns, will maintain Slight risk (level 2 of 5). However, a rather volatile thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across portions of the region, and higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks depending on forecast trends and mesoscale details.”

A Flood Watch has been posted for all of Upper Michigan and 3 counties in northern Lower Michigan where there is still snow on the ground (Emmet, Cheboygan and Presque Isle). A combination of snow melting and moderate to heavy rain could cause flooding this week in the U.P.

Here’s forecast high temperatures for this Sunday in Michigan. It’ll reach the upper 70s south of I-94, low to mid 70s up to Grand Rapids, 60s north of Kent County where there will be more clouds and showers. The warm air surges north and readings should reach the 50s even up at S. Ste. Marie and Munising.

It will be cooler near Lake Michigan…62 at S. Haven, 59 at the Ludington Airport.

Also: Volcano erupts in Japan. Tornado in India. Hailstorm in Turkey. Flooding in Saudi Arabia.